• Statistics and Probability

     

    Instructor:            Tim Frame

              Voice mail: 763.506.6261

              Email: tim.frame@ahschools.us

     

     

    Student progress: This is a required course, meaning successful completion is required for graduation.  Students and parents may access progress reports at any time via AH Connect. 

     

     

    Class Tools:

    • Scientific calculator or graphing calculator
    • folder and pencil

     

     

    Homework:   Students will be assigned daily homework.  A satisfactory assignment is one that shows an effort to do all of the assigned problems and demonstrates an understanding of the procedures used.  Homework will be collected on a daily basis.  Points will be deducted for late work and all late work must be turned in before the unit test.

     

     

    Assessments:

    There will be at least one quiz per chapter.  You may use your note packet on quizzes.  We will have a test at the end of each unit as well as a final test at the end of the trimester.  In order for a test re-take to be an option you need to meet the following requirements:

    • all homework for the unit is completed by the original test date
    • the remediation (extra practice) packet is completed
    • re-test is completed (either Tuesday during advisement or Wednesday morning during tornado time) within one week of the original test date

     

     

    Absences:   It is important to keep absences to a minimum.  Due to the activities that are done in class and the fact that you will not have a book, absences can be a major obstacle to success in this class.  All class notes can be found on my website.

     

     

     

    Keys for success:  

    • Ask questions in class.
    • Read and study your notes.
    • See me before or after school in the Math Resource Center for extra help.
    • Work on homework with other students from class.
    • Watch video tutorials (follow the link on my web page)
    • Attend class every day.

     

     

    Grading

    A        90% and above

    B        80% - 89%

    C        70% - 79%

    D        60% - 69%

    F         0%   - 59%

     

     

    Weighting Scale:          

     

    70 %   Tests

    10 %   Quizzes     

    20 %  Final Exam

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    PRIORITY
    High, Medium, Low

    Learning Targets

    Approximate # of Days

    Resources

    Standards 2007 Benchmarks
     

    Chapter 1

    6-8 days total

    		    

    high

    I can list the outcomes in a sample space for an event by making a list, creating a tree diagram, or by creating a table or grid.

    		  

    1.1

    9.4.3.1

    high

    I can find the number of outcomes for an event using the Fundamental Counting Principle.

    		  

    1.2

    9.4.3.1

    high

    I can find the number of outcomes for an event using permutations.

    		  

    1.3

    9.4.3.1

    high

    I can find the number of outcomes for an event using combinations.

    		  

    1.4

    9.4.3.1

    high

    I can select and apply an appropriate counting method to determine the number of outcomes for an event.

    		  

    1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5

    9.4.3.1

    low

    I can select and apply more than one counting method in a multi-step situation to determine the number of outcomes for an event.

    		  

    1.5

    9.4.3.1
     

    Chapter 2

    8-10 days total

    		    

    high

    I can use counting methods to calculate and write a probability for a simple event.

    		  

    2.1

    9.4.3.1

    low

    I can use the concept of the Law of Large Numbers and probabilities to make informed decisions.

    		  

    2.1

    9.4.3.3, 9.4.3.8

    high

    I can calculate probabilities for compound events with or without replacement.

    		  

    2.2

    9.4.3.5

    medium

    I can identify and apply the concepts of mutually exclusive and independence when calculating probabilities for two or more events.

    		  

    2.2, 2.3

    9.4.3.5

    medium

    I can create and use Venn Diagrams to calculate probabilities involving the intersection ("AND"), union ("OR"), or complements ("NOT") of events.

    		  

    2.1, 2.3

    9.4.3.6

    medium

    I can create and use Tree Diagrams to calculate probabilities involving the intersection ("AND"), union ("OR"), or complements ("NOT") of events.

    		  

    2.4

    9.4.3.1

    medium

    I can create and use a 2-way table to calculate probabilities involving the intersection ("AND"), union ("OR"), complements ("NOT"), or conditional probabilities ("GIVEN") of events.

    		  

    2.5

    9.4.3.9

    low

    I can use probability formulas to calculate probabilities involving the intersection ("AND"), union ("OR"), complements ("NOT"), or conditional probabilities ("GIVEN") of events.

    		  

    2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5

    9.4.3.7

    high

    I can select and apply an appropriate method to calculate the probability for an event or series of events.

    		  

    2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5

    9.4.3.5, 9.4.3.6, 9.4.3.7
     

    Chapter 3

    5-7 days total

    		    

    high

    I can construct a probability model.

    		  

    3.1, 3.2, 3.3

    9.4.3.1

    high

    I can calculate the expected value of a variable.

    		  

    3.1, 3.2, 3.3

    9.4.3.2

    medium

    I can use expected value to determine if a game is fair

    		  

    3.2, 3.3

    9.4.3.8

    medium

    I can assign digits to a probability model for a simulation.

    		  

    3.3

    9.4.3.4

    medium

    I can carry out a simulation using a random digit table and properly assigned digits based on a probability model.

    		  

    3.3

    9.4.3.2, 9.4.3.4

    low

    I can interpret the results from repeated simulations by calculating an experimental probability to make a decision about future outcomes (Law of Large Numbers).

    		  

    3.3

    9.4.3.2, 9.4.3.3
     

    Chapter 4

    6-8 days total

    		    

    high

    I can distinguish between the various methods for data collection (sample survey, census, observational studies and experiments).

    		  

    4.1

    9.4.2.1

    low

    I can identify sampling methods (SRS, stratified RS, systematic RS, multi-stage RS, voluntary response, convenience).

    		  

    4.2

    9.4.2.3

    high

    I can evaluate sampling methods and identify potential sources of bias in the data collection process.

    		  

    4.2

    9.4.2.3

    medum

    I can use a table of random digits or technology to select a random sample.

    		  

    4.3

    9.4.3.4

    medium

    I can find the margin of error and write a confidence statement for an estimated 95% confidence interval.

    		  

    4.4

    9.4.2

    low

    I can identify different experiment designs (completely randomized design and randomized block design).

    		  

    4.5

    9.4.2.3

    high

    I can evaluate experimental designs and identify potential lurking variables in the data collection process.

    		  

    4.5

    9.4.2.2, 9.4.2.3

    low

    I can design a good experiment.

    		  

    4.5

    9.4.2.3
     

    Chapter 5

    8-9 days total

    		    

    low

    I can construct a bar graph or pie chart for a set of categorical data.

    		  

    5.1

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can interpret a bar graph or pie chart for a set of categorical data.

    		  

    5.1

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can identify when a data display is misleading or distorted.

    		  

    5.1

    9.4.2.1, 9.4.2.2

    low

    I can construct and interpret a graph that shows change over time (line graph or time plot).

    		  

    5.2

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can calculate statistics for the measure of center of numerical data (mean, median, mode).

    		  

    5.2

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can calculate statistics for the measure of spread of numerical data (range, IQR, standard deviation).

    		  

    5.2, 5.5

    9.4.1.1

    low

    I can construct a dot plot for a numerical data set.

    		  

    5.2

    9.4.1.1

    medium

    I can interpret and describe a dot plot (SOCCS).

    		  

    5.3

    9.4.1.1

    low

    I can construct a stem-plot for a numerical data set, including split-stem plots.

    		  

    5.3

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can interpret and describe a stem-plot (SOCCS).

    		  

    5.3

    9.4.1.1

    low

    I can construct a histogram for a numerical data set.

    		  

    5.4

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can interpret and describe a histogram (SOCCS).

    		  

    5.4

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can calculate a 5-Number Summary for a set of numerical data {minimum, quartile 1, median, quartile 3, maximum}.

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.1

    medium

    I can construct a box-plot for a numerical data set.

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can interpret and describe a box-plot (SOCCS).

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.1

    low

    I can identify outliers in a set of data using the IQR Criterion.

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.1

    medium

    I can decide which measures of center (mean, median, mode) and spread (range, standard deviation, IQR) are appropriate to describe a given situation.

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.1, 9.4.1.2

    high

    I can analyze/deduce/infer the effects of an outlier and removing a data point from a set of data.

    		  

    5.5

    9.4.1.2

    low

    I can compare more than one set of numerical data using multiple graphical displays (side-by-side box plots and back-to-back stem plots).

    		  

    5.6

    9.4.1.1

    high

    I can determine an appropriate type of graphical display for data.

    		  

    5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6

    9.4.1.1
     

    Chapter 6

    6-7 days total

    		    

    medium

    I can construct a scatterplot to display the relationship between two numerical variables (with and without technology).

    		  

    6.1, 6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    high

    I can describe and interpret a scatterplot (SCOFD).

    		  

    6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    medium

    I can calculate the correlation coefficient of two variables using technology.

    		  

    6.3

    9.4.1.3

    high

    I can interpret the meaning of the correlation coefficient.

    		  

    6.2, 6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    high

    I can recognize when arguments based on data confuse correlation and causation.

    		  

    6.2

    9.4.2.2

    medium

    I can identify possible lurking variables in bi-variate data.

    		  

    6.2

    9.4.2.2

    medium

    I can calculate and graph a least squares regression line (LSRL) as a line of best fit.

    		  

    6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    high

    I can use the LSRL equation to make predictions.

    		  

    6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    medium

    I can determine the validity of the predictions made with a least squares regression equation (interpolation and extrapolation).

    		  

    6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    medium

    I can interpret the slope and the y-intercept of the LSRL.

    		  

    6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3

    high

    I can describe the effects of an outlier on the correlation coefficient (r) and the LSRL equation.

    		  

    6.3, 6.4

    9.4.1.3
     

    Chapter 7

    5-6 days total

    		    

    low

    I can construct a normal curve for a normal distribution

    		  

    7.1

    9.4.1.4

    medium

    I can identify the approximate mean and standard deviation from a normal curve.

    		  

    7.1

    9.4.1.4

    low

    I can use the Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7) to estimate probabilities and percentages about a normal distribution.

    		  

    7.1

    9.4.1.4

    high

    I can calculate a z-score (standard score).

    		  

    7.2

    9.4.1.4

    medium

    I can use z-scores to compare results for two different situations.

    		  

    7.2

    9.4.1.4

    high

    I can explain what it means for a data point to be at a certain percentile.

    		  

    7.2

    9.4.1.4

    high

    I can use z-scores (standard scores) and the characteristics of a normal distribution to estimate population percentages.

    		  

    7.2

    9.4.1.4

    medium

    I can calculate probabilities for a normal distribution above, below, or between two data points.

    		  

    7.2

    9.4.1.4

    low

    I can work backwards to find a piece of data given a percentile.

    		  

    7.3

    9.4.1.4